Ishares Global Agriculture AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
10.18%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
10.70%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
12.32%
increased by 1.79%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 10:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 20, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.35) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0187 | 9.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0924 | 38.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8868 | 366.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3529 | 16.34*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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