Skip to main content
V-Lab

Ishares Global Agriculture AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

10.18%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

10.70%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

12.32%

increased by 1.79%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 10:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Global Agriculture AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 20, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.35) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0187
9.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0924
38.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8868
366.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3529
16.34***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days