V-Lab
Ishares Global Agriculture GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.03%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
12.32%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
13.29%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 20, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 198% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0244 | 13.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0404 | 15.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9016 | 350.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0800 | 11.11*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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