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V-Lab

Ishares Global Agriculture GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

12.03%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

12.32%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

13.29%

increased by 0.91%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Global Agriculture GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 20, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 198% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0244
13.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0404
15.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9016
350.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0800
11.11***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days