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V-Lab

Ishares Global Agriculture GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

12.88%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

13.12%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

13.95%

increased by 0.48%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:07 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Global Agriculture GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 20, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6498
9.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0829
31.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9877
728.90***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.4651
4.40***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days