V-Lab
Ishares Global Agriculture Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
14.32%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
14.70%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
15.89%
increased by 1.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 20, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7007 | 7.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0909 | 7.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8773 | 61.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0274 | 5.73*** |
| γ2 | -0.0326 | -5.49*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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