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V-Lab

Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

24.83%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Week

27.45%

increased by 1.73%

1 Month

35.99%

increased by 10.27%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 476 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~476 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2755
0.54
αARCH0.1716
1.68*
βGARCH0.8269
9.70***

0.999

Persistence

476d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2755
0.54
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1716
1.68*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8269
9.70***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

476 days