Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
24.83%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
27.45%
increased by 1.73%
1 Month
35.99%
increased by 10.27%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 476 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~476 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2755 | 0.54 |
| αARCH | 0.1716 | 1.68* |
| βGARCH | 0.8269 | 9.70*** |
0.999
Persistence476d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2755 | 0.54 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1716 | 1.68* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8269 | 9.70*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
476 days
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