V-Lab
State Street SPDR Portfolio TIPS ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
3.83%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
3.93%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
4.29%
increased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 182 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0018 | 5.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1496 | 33.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8466 | 271.95*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
182 days
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