V-Lab
State Street SPDR Portfolio TIPS ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
4.36%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
4.43%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
4.69%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 45 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4749 | 4.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1114 | 5.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8733 | 53.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0019 | 2.19** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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