V-Lab
State Street SPDR Portfolio TIPS ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
4.28%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
4.33%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
4.54%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1701 | 6.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0738 | 28.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9900 | 764.48*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.9535 | 3.56*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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