V-Lab
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
16.07%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
16.20%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
16.70%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 27, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8148 | 6.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0931 | 35.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9890 | 539.83*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.3392 | 6.85*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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