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V-Lab

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

16.07%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

16.20%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Month

16.70%

decreased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI EAFE ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 27, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8148
6.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0931
35.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9890
539.83***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.3392
6.85***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days