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V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

13.11%

increased by 1.23%

1 Week

13.34%

increased by 1.46%

1 Month

14.17%

increased by 2.29%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI EAFE ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 27, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-lifev = 7.33 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7911
1.54
αARCH0.0931
8.87***
βGARCH0.9889
134.65***
νDF7.3272
1.72*

0.989

Persistence

62d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7911
1.54
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0931
8.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9889
134.65***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.3272
1.72*

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days