V-Lab
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
18.90%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
18.86%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Month
18.73%
decreased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2547 | 8.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0880 | 30.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9822 | 394.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5369 | 5.41*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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