V-Lab
Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
22.99%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
23.77%
increased by 0.51%
1 Month
25.27%
increased by 2.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3199 | 0.64 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8279 | 3.37*** |
| γleverage | 0.1164 | 0.58 |
0.886
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3199 | 0.64 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8279 | 3.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1164 | 0.58 |
Persistence:
0.886
Half-life:
6 days
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