V-Lab
iShares Core S&P U.S. Growth ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
14.15%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
14.38%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
15.26%
increased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 28, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 179 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0164 | 5.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1723 | 35.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8239 | 137.91*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
179 days
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