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V-Lab

iShares Core S&P U.S. Growth ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026

1 Day

14.12%

decreased by 0.92%

1 Week

14.29%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Month

14.94%

decreased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of iShares Core S&P U.S. Growth ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 28, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1897
5.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0947
39.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9929
778.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.2142
6.98***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

98 days