Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
10.31%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
10.94%
increased by 0.50%
1 Month
11.99%
increased by 1.55%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 28, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0879 | 2.00** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7720 | 9.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.1831 | 1.11 |
0.864
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0879 | 2.00** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7720 | 9.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1831 | 1.11 |
Persistence:
0.864
Half-life:
5 days
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