Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
12.72%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Week
12.83%
decreased by 1.22%
1 Month
13.01%
decreased by 1.04%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 28, 2022 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.80) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0620 | 8.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0912 | 9.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7324 | 45.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7999 | 17.01*** |
Persistence:
0.824
Half-life:
4 days
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