Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
11.32%
increased by 1.21%
1 Week
11.73%
increased by 1.62%
1 Month
12.42%
increased by 2.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 28, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.71) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0532 | 2.20** |
| αARCH | 0.0857 | 2.27** |
| βGARCH | 0.7688 | 12.40*** |
| γleverage | 0.7066 | 4.02*** |
0.855
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0532 | 2.20** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0857 | 2.27** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7688 | 12.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7066 | 4.02*** |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
Other Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on ETFs