Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
11.63%
increased by 1.28%
1 Week
11.90%
increased by 1.55%
1 Month
12.32%
increased by 1.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 28, 2022 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0969 | 2.27** |
| αARCH | 0.1131 | 1.78* |
| βGARCH | 0.7332 | 6.73*** |
0.846
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0969 | 2.27** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1131 | 1.78* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7332 | 6.73*** |
Persistence:
0.846
Half-life:
4 days
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