V-Lab
Nomura Focused Emerging Markets Equity ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
41.53%
decreased by 2.62%
1 Week
41.60%
decreased by 2.55%
1 Month
41.84%
decreased by 2.31%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 5, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0919 | 5.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1213 | 13.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8668 | 82.45*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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