V-Lab
Nomura Focused Emerging Markets Equity ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
55.60%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
58.82%
increased by 2.54%
1 Month
61.96%
increased by 5.68%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 5, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4712 | 2.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1364 | 1.65* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6016 | 3.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -4.4963 | -1.81* |
| γ2 | 8.7561 | 2.73*** |
| γ3 | -6.9117 | -5.45*** |
Persistence:
0.738
Half-life:
2 days
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