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V-Lab

Nomura Focused Emerging Markets Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

43.84%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

43.52%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Month

43.25%

decreased by 0.86%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Nomura Focused Emerging Markets Equity ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 5, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8635
8.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0431
1.77*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.5581
0.19
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4573
0.35
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5015
0.31

Persistence:

0.885

Half-life:

6 days