V-Lab
Nomura Focused Emerging Markets Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
43.84%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
43.52%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
43.25%
decreased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 5, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8635 | 8.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0431 | 1.77* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5581 | 0.19 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4573 | 0.35 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5015 | 0.31 |
Persistence:
0.885
Half-life:
6 days
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