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V-Lab

Nomura Focused Emerging Markets Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

41.31%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

40.90%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Month

39.49%

decreased by 2.15%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Nomura Focused Emerging Markets Equity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 5, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.9833
4.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0921
11.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9757
199.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.0783
4.42***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days