V-Lab
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
5.00%
increased by 0.18%
1 Week
5.03%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
5.13%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2002 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 13.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0460 | 33.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9472 | 598.38*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
103 days
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