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V-Lab

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

5.09%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

5.10%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

5.10%

decreased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0629
17.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8275
55.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0051
-1.25
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0023
1.80*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1057
2.30**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8812
17.28***

Persistence:

0.888

Half-life:

6 days