V-Lab
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
5.09%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
5.10%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
5.10%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0629 | 17.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8275 | 55.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0051 | -1.25 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0023 | 1.80* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1057 | 2.30** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8812 | 17.28*** |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
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