V-Lab
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
5.04%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
5.06%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
5.16%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 13.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0446 | 16.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9472 | 594.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0031 | 0.68 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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