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V-Lab

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

5.04%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

5.06%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

5.16%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
13.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0446
16.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9472
594.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0031
0.68

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

104 days