V-Lab
iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
19.94%
increased by 2.16%
1 Week
20.23%
increased by 2.45%
1 Month
21.20%
increased by 3.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 248% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 248% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0524 | 5.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.0385 | 2.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8951 | 89.94*** |
| γleverage | 0.0956 | 4.32*** |
0.981
Persistence37d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0524 | 5.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0385 | 2.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8951 | 89.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0956 | 4.32*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
Other iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on ETFs