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iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

19.79%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

20.07%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

21.06%

increased by 0.50%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 244% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 244% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0521
5.33***
αARCH0.0387
2.77***
βGARCH0.8954
89.98***
γleverage0.0946
4.28***

0.981

Persistence

37d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0521
5.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0387
2.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8954
89.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0946
4.28***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days