V-Lab
iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
14.82%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
15.41%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
17.35%
increased by 2.26%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 248% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0526 | 21.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0385 | 10.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8951 | 359.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0955 | 17.28*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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