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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

18.19%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Week

18.57%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

19.85%

increased by 1.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 246% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0527
21.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0386
10.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8952
358.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0950
17.19***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days