iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
19.79%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
20.07%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
21.06%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 244% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 244% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0521 | 5.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.0387 | 2.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8954 | 89.98*** |
| γleverage | 0.0946 | 4.28*** |
0.981
Persistence37d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0521 | 5.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0387 | 2.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8954 | 89.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0946 | 4.28*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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