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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

19.94%

increased by 2.16%

1 Week

20.23%

increased by 2.45%

1 Month

21.20%

increased by 3.42%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 248% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 248% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0524
5.33***
αARCH0.0385
2.75***
βGARCH0.8951
89.94***
γleverage0.0956
4.32***

0.981

Persistence

37d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0524
5.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0385
2.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8951
89.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0956
4.32***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days