V-Lab
iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
18.12%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
18.33%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
19.11%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0336 | 4.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0266 | 2.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9053 | 115.83*** |
| γleverage | 0.1093 | 4.94*** |
0.987
Persistence51d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0336 | 4.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0266 | 2.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9053 | 115.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1093 | 4.94*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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