V-Lab
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4.99%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
5.01%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
5.10%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0677 | 8.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0462 | 8.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9465 | 147.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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