V-Lab
TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
5.05%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
5.12%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
5.41%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 264 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0018 | 5.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0463 | 8.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9511 | 176.78*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
264 days
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