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V-Lab

TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

5.05%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

5.12%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

5.41%

increased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2019 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 264 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0018
5.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0463
8.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9511
176.78***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

264 days