Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

5.90%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

5.96%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Month

6.17%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 136 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~136 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.0451
2.18**
βGARCH0.9498
43.90***
γleverage0.2124
1.33

0.995

Persistence

136d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0451
2.18**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9498
43.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2124
1.33

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

136 days