V-Lab
TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
5.90%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
5.96%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
6.17%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 136 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~136 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0451 | 2.18** |
| βGARCH | 0.9498 | 43.90*** |
| γleverage | 0.2124 | 1.33 |
0.995
Persistence136d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0451 | 2.18** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9498 | 43.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2124 | 1.33 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
136 days
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