V-Lab
TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 3rd, 2026
1 Day
4.52%
1 Week
4.52%
1 Month
4.53%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution. The volatility power δ = 2.43 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.45 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0674 | 1.41 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9181 | 22.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1027 | -0.89 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.4275 | 4.01*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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