V-Lab
TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
6.00%
1 Week
6.03%
1 Month
6.14%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9706 | 88.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.0488 | 3.05*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1429 | 1.15 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1544 | 0.70 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9706 | 88.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0488 | 3.05*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1429 | 1.15 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1544 | 0.70 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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