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V-Lab

TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

4.83%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

4.86%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

4.95%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9697
201.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0505
6.03***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1353
0.04
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1822
0.04
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days