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V-Lab

TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

5.22%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

5.23%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

5.27%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 12:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2019 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. The volatility power δ = 2.89 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0007
1.38
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0165
1.18
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9527
49.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3649
0.94
δ

power

Transformation power

2.8869
5.84***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days