V-Lab
TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
8.03%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
8.16%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
8.62%
increased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 28-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | -0.0173 | -0.74 |
| αARCH | 0.0625 | 0.88 |
| βGARCH | 0.9755 | 18.22*** |
| γleverage | -0.0994 | -1.41 |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0173 | -0.74 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0625 | 0.88 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9755 | 18.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0994 | -1.41 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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