V-Lab
TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
5.79%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
5.84%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
6.01%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~88 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0021 | 1.06 |
| αARCH | 0.0002 | 0.01 |
| βGARCH | 0.9593 | 48.07*** |
| γleverage | 0.0652 | 2.25** |
0.992
Persistence88d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0021 | 1.06 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0002 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9593 | 48.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0652 | 2.25** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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