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TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

5.79%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

5.84%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

6.01%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~88 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0021
1.06
αARCH0.0002
0.01
βGARCH0.9593
48.07***
γleverage0.0652
2.25**

0.992

Persistence

88d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0021
1.06
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0002
0.01
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9593
48.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0652
2.25**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

88 days