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V-Lab

TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

5.24%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

5.30%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

5.52%

increased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0021
4.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0006
0.11
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9592
190.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0648
8.89***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

89 days