V-Lab
TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
5.24%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
5.30%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
5.52%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0021 | 4.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0006 | 0.11 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9592 | 190.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0648 | 8.89*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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