V-Lab
TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
4.66%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
4.67%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
4.67%
decreased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 2.25** |
| αARCH | 0.0918 | 1.35 |
| βGARCH | 0.9258 | 18.37*** |
| γleverage | -0.0352 | -0.91 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 2.25** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0918 | 1.35 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9258 | 18.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0352 | -0.91 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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