V-Lab
TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
5.71%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
5.65%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
5.52%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1618 | 2.20** |
| αARCH | 0.0324 | 1.60 |
| βGARCH | 0.8767 | 12.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -14.6469 | -3.80*** |
| γ2 | 16.5121 | 2.84*** |
| γ3 | 2.3322 | 0.67 |
| γ4 | -7.0830 | -2.76*** |
| γ5 | 2.1130 | 0.95 |
| γ6 | 1.1056 | 0.53 |
| γ7 | 0.4013 | 0.23 |
| γ8 | -1.5882 | -1.12 |
| γ9 | 1.4811 | 1.26 |
| γ10 | -0.6473 | -0.78 |
0.909
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1618 | 2.20** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0324 | 1.60 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8767 | 12.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -14.6469 | -3.80*** |
| γ2 | 16.5121 | 2.84*** |
| γ3 | 2.3322 | 0.67 |
| γ4 | -7.0830 | -2.76*** |
| γ5 | 2.1130 | 0.95 |
| γ6 | 1.1056 | 0.53 |
| γ7 | 0.4013 | 0.23 |
| γ8 | -1.5882 | -1.12 |
| γ9 | 1.4811 | 1.26 |
| γ10 | -0.6473 | -0.78 |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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