V-Lab
TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
5.36%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
5.33%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
5.27%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1613 | 2.18** |
| αARCH | 0.0333 | 1.63 |
| βGARCH | 0.8750 | 12.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -14.7078 | -3.73*** |
| γ2 | 16.4544 | 2.78*** |
| γ3 | 2.5556 | 0.73 |
| γ4 | -7.1318 | -2.77*** |
| γ5 | 1.9328 | 0.87 |
| γ6 | 1.3282 | 0.63 |
| γ7 | 0.1491 | 0.09 |
| γ8 | -1.1915 | -0.84 |
| γ9 | 0.9583 | 0.80 |
| γ10 | -0.2258 | -0.26 |
0.908
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1613 | 2.18** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0333 | 1.63 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8750 | 12.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -14.7078 | -3.73*** |
| γ2 | 16.4544 | 2.78*** |
| γ3 | 2.5556 | 0.73 |
| γ4 | -7.1318 | -2.77*** |
| γ5 | 1.9328 | 0.87 |
| γ6 | 1.3282 | 0.63 |
| γ7 | 0.1491 | 0.09 |
| γ8 | -1.1915 | -0.84 |
| γ9 | 0.9583 | 0.80 |
| γ10 | -0.2258 | -0.26 |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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