Skip to main content
V-Lab

TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

4.56%

increased by 0.11%

1 Week

4.60%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

4.70%

increased by 0.25%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1608
2.14**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0337
1.66*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8757
12.47***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-14.7916
-3.64***
γ216.4405
2.70***
γ32.7268
0.77
γ4-7.1012
-2.75***
γ51.6519
0.74
γ61.6485
0.78
γ7-0.1942
-0.11
γ8-0.6859
-0.49
γ90.2790
0.23
γ100.3445
0.38

Persistence:

0.909

Half-life:

7 days