V-Lab
TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
413.94%
increased by 59.20%
1 Week
411.92%
increased by 57.18%
1 Month
403.98%
increased by 49.24%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Illiquid Asset
Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 15.6498 | 2.55** |
| αARCH | 0.0964 | 25.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9950 | 480.90*** |
| νDF | 2.0002 |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.6498 | 2.55** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0964 | 25.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9950 | 480.90*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0002 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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