V-Lab
TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
329.39%
increased by 43.15%
1 Week
327.78%
increased by 41.54%
1 Month
321.48%
increased by 35.24%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 19.2992 | 10.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0971 | 100.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9949 | 1,870.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0001 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
135 days
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