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TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

490.24%

decreased by 61.37%

1 Week

487.84%

decreased by 63.77%

1 Month

478.45%

decreased by 73.16%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026
Illiquid Asset
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst29.7013
2.54**
αARCH0.0969
25.14***
βGARCH0.9949
477.19***
νDF2.0001

0.995

Persistence

137d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

29.7013
2.54**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0969
25.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9949
477.19***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0001

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

137 days