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TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

413.94%

increased by 59.20%

1 Week

411.92%

increased by 57.18%

1 Month

403.98%

increased by 49.24%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026
Illiquid Asset
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst15.6498
2.55**
αARCH0.0964
25.17***
βGARCH0.9950
480.90***
νDF2.0002

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.6498
2.55**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0964
25.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9950
480.90***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0002

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days