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V-Lab
V-Lab

TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

5.26%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

5.22%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Month

5.14%

decreased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1557
2.15**
αARCH0.0331
1.62
βGARCH0.8715
11.63***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-15.0721
-3.87***
γ216.9636
2.90***
γ32.3541
0.68
γ4-7.0583
-2.77***
γ51.9201
0.87
γ61.3103
0.63
γ70.1857
0.11
γ8-1.2615
-0.88
γ91.1035
0.73
γ10-0.5761
-0.22

0.905

Persistence

7d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1557
2.15**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0331
1.62
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8715
11.63***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-15.0721
-3.87***
γ216.9636
2.90***
γ32.3541
0.68
γ4-7.0583
-2.77***
γ51.9201
0.87
γ61.3103
0.63
γ70.1857
0.11
γ8-1.2615
-0.88
γ91.1035
0.73
γ10-0.5761
-0.22

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days