V-Lab
TD Active US HI Yild BND ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
5.26%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
5.22%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
5.14%
decreased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1557 | 2.15** |
| αARCH | 0.0331 | 1.62 |
| βGARCH | 0.8715 | 11.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -15.0721 | -3.87*** |
| γ2 | 16.9636 | 2.90*** |
| γ3 | 2.3541 | 0.68 |
| γ4 | -7.0583 | -2.77*** |
| γ5 | 1.9201 | 0.87 |
| γ6 | 1.3103 | 0.63 |
| γ7 | 0.1857 | 0.11 |
| γ8 | -1.2615 | -0.88 |
| γ9 | 1.1035 | 0.73 |
| γ10 | -0.5761 | -0.22 |
0.905
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1557 | 2.15** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0331 | 1.62 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8715 | 11.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -15.0721 | -3.87*** |
| γ2 | 16.9636 | 2.90*** |
| γ3 | 2.3541 | 0.68 |
| γ4 | -7.0583 | -2.77*** |
| γ5 | 1.9201 | 0.87 |
| γ6 | 1.3103 | 0.63 |
| γ7 | 0.1857 | 0.11 |
| γ8 | -1.2615 | -0.88 |
| γ9 | 1.1035 | 0.73 |
| γ10 | -0.5761 | -0.22 |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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