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V-Lab

Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

9.51%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

10.19%

increased by 0.50%

1 Month

10.96%

increased by 1.27%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 28, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.6145
7.03***
γleverage0.2328
3.37***
λ₁tau intercept0.3674
0.73
λ₂forecast adj.0.3627
0.73
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.731

Persistence

2d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6145
7.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2328
3.37***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3674
0.73
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3627
0.73
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.731

Half-life:

2 days