Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
9.51%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
10.19%
increased by 0.50%
1 Month
10.96%
increased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 28, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.6145 | 7.03*** |
| γleverage | 0.2328 | 3.37*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.3674 | 0.73 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3627 | 0.73 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.731
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6145 | 7.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2328 | 3.37*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3674 | 0.73 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3627 | 0.73 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.731
Half-life:
2 days
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