Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
12.16%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
12.35%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
12.16%
decreased by 1.19%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 28, 2022 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5956 | 24.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2552 | 16.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4136 | 0.17 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3180 | 0.20 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.723
Half-life:
2 days
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