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V-Lab

Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

10.29%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Week

10.75%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

11.39%

increased by 0.70%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 28, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1006
10.62***
αARCH0.1157
1.63
βGARCH0.7006
5.37***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0208
1.44

0.816

Persistence

3d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1006
10.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1157
1.63
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7006
5.37***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0208
1.44

Persistence:

0.816

Half-life:

3 days