iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
7.47%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
7.53%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
7.74%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0033 | 13.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0574 | 30.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9350 | 491.08*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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