iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
8.00%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
8.13%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
8.48%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5671 | 5.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0650 | 5.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8844 | 50.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2635 | -2.91*** |
| γ2 | 0.2945 | 2.30** |
| γ3 | -0.0061 | -0.08 |
| γ4 | -0.0531 | -0.67 |
| γ5 | 0.1828 | 2.16** |
| γ6 | -0.3588 | -5.16*** |
| γ7 | 0.2810 | 6.59*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
Other iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs