V-Lab
iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
7.63%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
7.80%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
8.28%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5675 | 5.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0652 | 5.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8841 | 50.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2632 | -2.92*** |
| γ2 | 0.2946 | 2.31** |
| γ3 | -0.0070 | -0.10 |
| γ4 | -0.0517 | -0.65 |
| γ5 | 0.1819 | 2.15** |
| γ6 | -0.3615 | -5.22*** |
| γ7 | 0.2859 | 6.74*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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