iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
8.99%
1 Week
9.02%
1 Month
9.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.76 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0038 | 3.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0606 | 7.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9363 | 116.69*** |
| γleverage | -0.0182 | -0.29 |
| δpower | 1.7631 | 6.69*** |
0.992
Persistence89d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0038 | 3.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0606 | 7.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9363 | 116.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0182 | -0.29 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7631 | 6.69*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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