iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
9.94%
1 Week
9.94%
1 Month
9.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 14.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.3739 | 2.94*** |
| αscore | 0.0534 | 7.17*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9924 | 303.04*** |
| νDF | 14.2799 | 0.64 |
0.992
Persistence91d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.3739 | 2.94*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0534 | 7.17*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9924 | 303.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 14.2799 | 0.64 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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