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V-Lab

iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

7.12%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

7.16%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

7.33%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 14.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3668
11.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0539
28.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9924
1,178.64***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

14.0870
2.61***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

91 days