V-Lab
iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
7.12%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
7.16%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
7.33%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 14.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3668 | 11.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0539 | 28.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9924 | 1,178.64*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 14.0870 | 2.61*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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