iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
7.45%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
7.51%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
7.71%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0033 | 12.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0595 | 14.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9353 | 493.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0047 | -0.71 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
92 days
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