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V-Lab

iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

7.45%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

7.51%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

7.71%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0033
12.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0595
14.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9353
493.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0047
-0.71

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

92 days