Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

10.53%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

10.53%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

10.54%

decreased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:32 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~94 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0033
3.14***
αARCH0.0587
3.56***
βGARCH0.9364
125.88***
γleverage-0.0049
-0.19

0.993

Persistence

94d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0033
3.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0587
3.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9364
125.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0049
-0.19

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

94 days