Skip to main content
V-Lab

iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

9.47%

increased by 0.35%

1 Week

9.49%

increased by 0.37%

1 Month

9.56%

increased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0033
12.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0592
14.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9356
495.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0045
-0.68

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

93 days