Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
64.90%
increased by 2.89%
1 Week
64.80%
increased by 2.79%
1 Month
64.42%
increased by 2.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 12, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~84 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1118 | 0.37 |
| αARCH | 0.2204 | 1.30 |
| βGARCH | 0.7714 | 7.12*** |
0.992
Persistence84d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1118 | 0.37 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2204 | 1.30 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7714 | 7.12*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
Other Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF Analyses
Other MEM Analyses on ETFs