Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
53.78%
decreased by 4.48%
1 Week
70.24%
increased by 11.98%
1 Month
78.98%
increased by 20.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 12, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8984 | 2.50** |
| αARCH | 0.5457 | 1.38 |
| βGARCH | 0.0566 | 0.85 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.3388 | -0.87 |
0.602
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8984 | 2.50** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5457 | 1.38 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0566 | 0.85 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.3388 | -0.87 |
Persistence:
0.602
Half-life:
1 days
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