V-Lab
Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
40.96%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
40.96%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
40.96%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 12, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0876 | 2.55** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7749 | 0.64 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 3.4371 | 0.40 |
Persistence:
0.775
Half-life:
3 days
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