Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
139.41%
increased by 81.02%
1 Week
114.19%
increased by 55.80%
1 Month
92.19%
increased by 33.80%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 12, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9833 | 2.21** |
| αARCH | 0.5969 | 1.45 |
| βGARCH | 0.0382 | 0.86 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.0155 | -0.57 |
0.635
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9833 | 2.21** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5969 | 1.45 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0382 | 0.86 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.0155 | -0.57 |
Persistence:
0.635
Half-life:
2 days
Other Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs