V-Lab
Grayscale Ethereum Staking Mini ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
74.37%
decreased by 5.70%
1 Week
73.04%
decreased by 7.03%
1 Month
71.79%
decreased by 8.28%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 23, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 20.1568 | 8.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0811 | 2.30** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7114 | 11.02*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0562 | 0.54 |
Persistence:
0.711
Half-life:
2 days
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