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State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

25.43%

decreased by 1.05%

1 Week

25.91%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Month

27.55%

increased by 1.07%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.17) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.0668
6.74***
βGARCH0.9166
89.88***
γleverage1.1723
6.09***

0.983

Persistence

42d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0668
6.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9166
89.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.1723
6.09***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

42 days