State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
25.43%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
25.91%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Month
27.55%
increased by 1.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.17) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0668 | 6.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9166 | 89.88*** |
| γleverage | 1.1723 | 6.09*** |
0.983
Persistence42d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0668 | 6.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9166 | 89.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.1723 | 6.09*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
42 days
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