V-Lab
iShares Russell 2000 ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
12.25%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
13.05%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
15.50%
increased by 2.61%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0551 | 2.50** |
| αARCH | 0.2247 | 11.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7520 | 60.86*** |
0.977
Persistence29d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0551 | 2.50** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2247 | 11.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7520 | 60.86*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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