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V-Lab

Roundhill DLY 2X LG Magn SVN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

52.17%

decreased by 2.37%

1 Week

52.24%

decreased by 2.30%

1 Month

52.44%

decreased by 2.10%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Roundhill DLY 2X LG Magn SVN GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 29, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.1051
5.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0940
7.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9514
118.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2022
1.57

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days